* Our take on the Fed minutes
* Bond market rallies on CPI report
* FTX collapse…hard to look away
The Timber Log – 11/10/22
* The “red ripple” and Trump
* October CPI finally brings relief
* King dollar in trend change…
* Inflation – sticky or flexible?
The Timber Log – 10/27/22
* Reasons for the recent rally
* Industrial Production is impressive
* Red wave is spreading
* Biden’s energy policy
The Timber Log – 10/14/22
* Waiting on 10/28 PCE report
* Fed policy and overseas bond markets
* What is your bull case?
* High Yield at 9%…
The Timber Log – 9/20/22
* CPI report is troubling
* PPI input increases slowing
* QT and “excess reserves”
* How is the consumer holding up?
The Timber Log – 9/13/22
* August CPI report disappoints
* QT ramps up…
* Europe’s energy issue
* Mid-term elections on the horizon
The Timber Log – 9/2/22
* Powell is talking tough, no pivot foreseen
* Sign posts for falling inflation are present
* Dollar strength a headwind for EM
The Timber Log – 8/16/22
* Inflation prints subside for the time being…
* Size and style are drivers in recent rally
* Fixed Income market sells the news of tame inflation
The Timber Log – 8/8/22
* Recession thoughts and the consumer
* The Inflation Reduction Act is a misnomer
* 2Q22 and 2023 earnings revisions
* Small caps rally as high yields contract
The Timber Log – 7/18/22
* Bond market volatility still below Covid levels
* Credit cycle is benign to date
* US $ – time to go the other way?
The Timber Log – 7/6/22
* Very few upbeat economic signals…
* Semi inventories may be normalizing soon
* WHAT IF…Ukraine and Russia talk peace
The Timber Log – 6/13/22
* M2 growth is moderating
* Small cap sentiment and valuation interesting
* US $ – stronger for longer?
The Timber Log – 6/7/22
* Focus on wage growth as it tracks PCE
* Energy equities valuations attractive
* US market continues to outperform ROW
The Timber Log – 6/1/22
* Bond market discounting slow down
* Consumer sector outlook is difficult
* Housing affordability crimping demand
* Stablecoins are not so stable…
The Timber Log – 5/17/22
* Inflation prints no longer shocking…
* 1Q22 earnings estimates on the rise…
* Natural gas prices on the move…
* IPO’s not feeling any love…
















Karol Krucinski, CFA is a Director of Portfolio Management at Timber Point Capital Management and Fortis Capital Advisors where he co-manages investment strategy implementation and portfolio construction while leading the firm’s Direct Indexing platform and trading oversight. His client work encompasses developing customized portfolio solutions and analysis of complex investment scenarios including concentrated positions and tax-sensitive transitions. Karol’s experience spans quantitative analysis, portfolio optimization and risk management across diverse asset classes.
Kirsten Stainer has extensive experience managing institutional and private investor relationships while structuring and leading capital formation efforts across both debt and equity strategies. In addition to her experience in real estate, Kirsten has led Series A and B raises at Founders Fund and Battery Ventures backed startups and scaled enterprise revenue streams with teams at JPMorgan Chase and Clearwater Analytics.
Manish Shah, J.D. has decades of experience investing across the capital stack and various alternative investment classes. He has served as a principal and manager of numerous real estate investments, including control equity, preferred equity, mezzanine and senior debt investments. His prior experience includes the turnaround of a publicly traded company (acquired NYSE: EMR) where he was responsible for business and real estate acquisitions and divestitures.