During her campaign to become Prime Minister, Liz Truss drew a lot of comparisons to Margaret Thatcher as she promised to pursue economic policies that went beyond the elimination...
The Fed Reckoning – 4Q 2022 Outlook
It goes without saying that the past several years have been momentous in many respects, including in the realms of economics and investment markets. Well before COVID and the...
Inflation Impact of Fed Balance Sheet Reduction
We have argued that inflation is a monetary phenomenon and thus we need to focus on the monetary aggregates in order to get a handle on the inflation rate. Since the Fed plays a...
No Fun Zone – 3Q 2022 Outlook
Well, that was not fun. The second quarter of 2022 proved to be a much more difficult investing environment than we had initially anticipated. Inflation which we believed would...
Trifecta – 2Q 2022 Outlook
Markets contended with a trifecta of economic and geo-political worries this past quarter which created a very challenging environment for investors. A continued spike in...
Geo-Politics, Markets and Volatility
It goes without saying that the military conflict in the Ukraine over the past two weeks is very disconcerting and has caused great anxiety and worry to us all. The conflict...
Presidential Approval Ratings: Causes and Consequences
President Biden’s approval rating below 40% makes us wonder if he will pursue greater bipartisanship if the Democrats lose the mid term elections. Of course, this decision could have ramifications for the 2024 Presidential election.
Issues and Non-Issues – 1Q 2022 Outlook
Despite lingering concerns and anxiety regarding the Delta and Omicron variants of COVID-19, a multitude of supply disruptions and meaningfully rising inflationary pressures, the...
Bidenomics and Building Back Better
The following is an excerpt from a longer article published by Victor Canto, PhD, who serves as an economic consultant to TPCM. To inquire about the full article please visit...
Conviction – 4Q 2021 Outlook
Investors love passion and conviction. “I saw an analyst on CNBC the other day. She loves Tesla. She’s all in.” “My hedge fund manager is so confident on Bitcoin, he’s taken a 25%...
Key Supply Chain Improvements Should Arrive Shortly
We’d like to thank our summer analyst interns, Max Persico, John Schreiber and John Hufnagel for all their help this summer and putting this important research piece together for...
Climbing that Wall of Worry – 3Q 2021 Outlook
As often is the case, the equity market overcame a litany of worries this past quarter as many of the more macroeconomic and policy-oriented concerns quickly dissipated and...
Inflation – Where Art Thou?
In response to the COVID-19 Pandemic, the Fed dusted off its Financial Crisis playbook. Looking at the inflation rate, the real economy, and the financial markets performance since...
Internal Dynamics – 2Q 2021 Outlook
A casual observer of economics and markets could look at the first quarter of 2021 and remark that it was a very solid period with the S&P 500 rising 6% as the vaccines for...
And it Begins Again…..1Q 2021 Outlook
It goes without saying that 2020 was a historic year. The COVID-19 crisis which increasingly swept the world, had a dramatic impact across all aspects of society and life including...