The “debt ceiling” deal of May has been extraordinary leaving the U.S. with a $1 trillion deficit and a growing US Treasury issuance calendar which has global bond investors repricing what the “normalized” cost of interest should be for the U.S.  

On the back of terrible market performance in 2022, investors started the year fixated on inflation, Fed policy and a potential recession. Of 20 Wall Street investment strategists, only 2 had bullish forecasts going into 2023 implying low odds for any market rally…

The Volcker rule was a mechanistic approach to monetary policy. Bernanke deviated from this policy and the Fed’s balance sheet continued to grow. Victor takes a look back at the past decade and how the Fed has lost its way…

Based on lagged impact of M2, inflation should decline to 2% by the November ’24 election. We expect T-bill yields to stabilize and the economy to return to trendline growth with higher bond yields and a normalized yield curve.

It goes without saying that 2022 was a difficult investing year and the list of items to worry about seemed never ending.  The biggest worries on the list were inflation, Fed...

The misery index is the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates. Whether it is friend or foe to Biden will likely be determined by the Fed’s success in taming inflation…

We argue that the Global Minimum Tax and the Buy American Industrial Policy appear to contradict each other. The contradiction is as follows:  On the one hand the Biden...

With greater than 60 days of 1% declines in the S&P 500, 2022 was truly a year of heartache for investors who had become increasingly comfortable with an ongoing love affair...

2022 was a “black swan” event for the 60/40 strategy. Negative correlation between stocks and bonds is ideal, but not the only scenario where the 60/40 provides diversification benefit.

During her campaign to become Prime Minister, Liz Truss drew a lot of comparisons to Margaret Thatcher as she promised to pursue economic policies that went beyond the elimination...

It goes without saying that the past several years have been momentous in many respects, including in the realms of economics and investment markets.  Well before COVID and the...

We have argued that inflation is a monetary phenomenon and thus we need to focus on the monetary aggregates in order to get a handle on the inflation rate. Since the Fed plays a...

Well, that was not fun. The second quarter of 2022 proved to be a much more difficult investing environment than we had initially anticipated. Inflation which we believed would...

Markets contended with a trifecta of economic and geo-political worries this past quarter which created a very challenging environment for investors. A continued spike in...

It goes without saying that the military conflict in the Ukraine over the past two weeks is very disconcerting and has caused great anxiety and worry to us all. The conflict...